By Karan Thapar

Tomorrow is World Aids Day. Ordinarily that wouldn’t have mattered one little bit but this year – because I’ve just done an in-depth programme for the BBC – is different. I’ve become aware of some frightening details and they have shaken me. Of course, it’s always possible that my information is incomplete or one-sided and, consequently, my concern exaggerated. But I think not. The picture I have has been carefully painted by people I respect and trust. That’s why I want to share it with you. And when I do I’m confident you will feel the same apprehension and anxiety.

Let’s start with the facts although that word is inappropriate. The Government claims India has 4.5 million HIV positive cases. The UN puts the figure somewhere between 7 and 8 million. But some of the NGOs-and they, after all, are the most actively involved – claim it could be 10 million.

So why don’t we have a clearer picture? Because, to put it bluntly, we don’t have effective and reliable ways of finding out. The government figure is based on statistics from antenatal and STD clinics. But how many families have access to them? You know the answer. More importantly, this estimate excludes all those infected by the intravenous route and most of those by casual or multi-partner sex.

Consequently few believe the government figure and the real one could be considerably larger. Anjali Gopalan, the Executive Director of the NAAZ Foundation and one of India’s most respected AIDS campaigners, says it could be as much as 14 or 15 million. And how fast is it growing? Last year the National Aids Control Organisation increased its own estimate by 15 per cent. If that’s the annual rate of increase of HIV it’s not insignificant.

Which means the critical question is how do you prevent proliferation? No one doubts that intravenous infection is controllable but how many are likely to be infected by sexual transmission and how rapidly will casual or multi-partner sex spread the virus?

The Government accepts that 83 to 86 per cent of HIV infection is by sexual transmission. Where the Government and the NGOs differ is how fast it’s spreading through the heterosexual population. The Government believes it’s containable because Indians are moral and will not stray. Or, if they do, they can be cautioned and will stop.

Not surprisingly, the NGOs disagree. They don’t believe Indian sexual behaviour is different to the rest of the world. A recent study of sexual behaviour in rural India, commissioned by the United Nations Family Planning Association (but, mysteriously, unpublished) bears them out. It suggests that 42 per cent of unmarried men and 22 per cent of married men indulge in extra-marital sex. If they’re infected they are passing it on worryingly fast.

Oscar Fernandes, the Convenor of the Parliamentary Forum on HIV/AIDS, in a recent speech to the Confederation of Indian Industry, suggests another indicator of casual sexual contact and how quickly HIV can spread. He claims 60 per cent of college students have their first sexual experience before graduation. I see no reason to doubt this. Or the UNFPA figures.

But that’s not all. The same UNFPA survey of sexual behaviour in rural India knocks another of our cherished myths. Our society ignores, even denies, that men can have sex with men. In the eyes of the law such things aren’t just wrong, they are against the order of nature. So, presumably, there’s no danger that HIV could be passed on by such transmission?

Wrong. The UNFPA survey shows that unmarried men are more likely to have sex with another man than with a commercial sex worker. Of the 42 per cent who indulge in extra-marital sex a fair number are choosing men as partners, even if casually or occasionally. Clearly this represents another aspect of the HIV ‘problem’ that we fail to appreciate.

Yet what is the Government’s answer to the fear that HIV could spread like wild fire through the Indian population? Celibacy and monogamy! In other words, self-control and old-fashion morality. Or, to put it differently, it’s asking people to avoid HIV by abstaining from or limiting sex. Not by advocating safety. It’s trying to change human behaviour – which is close to impossible – rather than reduce risk.

Ours is perhaps the only government that believes in its ability to change basic sexual desires. Whilst others advocate safe sex ours doesn’t because that might end up promoting it. As if we in India need encouragement! But the Government, bless their little moral hearts, doesn’t want to be seen on the side of permissiveness. So it prefers to put lives at risk in order to maintain the delusion that Indians behave differently.

Are you surprised I’m concerned? But if I’ve ruined your sunday morning, I do apologise.